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One lesson that I learned years ago from Ken Tower Schwab’s technical guru is that trends usually last longer than you think. This has proven to be true many times since I heard this from Ken in a technical trading seminar. Look at the oil ETF OIX. Two summers ago I recall that oil stocks had seen an incredible upward move. While the trend could be nearing completion now in my now 20/20 hindsight vision that was only the mid point. This is an important concept to remember as you invest with the intention of being in upward trending sectors over most of the cycle.
The trend usually lasts longer than you expect. Make the trend your friend!